RESEARCH

Congressional Stock Trading
— The Data

We analyzed 32,626 congressional stock trades filed under the STOCK Act from 2018–2026. Buying every congressional trade indiscriminately underperforms the S&P 500 by 2.31% at 180 days — Congress, in aggregate, is not a better stock picker than the index. But filtered for bipartisan clusters with committee relevance, the same dataset produces +5.63% alpha at 180 days. The ~8-point spread between the baseline and the signal is what Signal Congress finds.

Read our full methodology and statistical caveats →
CORE FINDING
+5.63%
Average 180-day outperformance vs. S&P 500
for cross-chamber bipartisan cluster trades (n=701, 2023–2026)
52.1%
Win Rate
+5.63% vs SPX
Avg Alpha
701 signals
Trade Count
2023–2026
Test Period
STRATEGY COMPARISON

Four Strategies, Backtested

Starting from all 32,626 congressional trades, we applied progressively tighter filters. The unfiltered baseline loses to the market. The right filter finds significant alpha. Each strategy below is independent — not a funnel.

BASELINE (NO FILTER)
All congressional purchases vs SPY
-2.31%
at 180 days · n = 11,695 purchases
STRATEGYTRADESWIN RATEALPHA vs SPX
Cross-Chamber Bipartisan Buys70152.1%+5.63%
High Conviction Sells20650.8%+4.90%
Bipartisan Cluster Buys1,96549.3%+2.15%
High Conviction Purchases66646.8%+1.84%
Low Lag — Fast Disclosure (≤7 days)96949.4%+1.07%
Large Positions (≥$50K mid)58650.3%+0.71%
Senate Purchases (All)1,26241.2%-0.46%
All Purchases (Baseline)11,69543.0%-2.31%
House Purchases (All)10,43343.2%-2.46%
★ = highlighted strategy used as Signal Congress primary signal. Alpha measured vs. S&P 500 total return over matching 180-day windows, winsorized at ±200%. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SIGNAL VALIDATION

Bipartisan Clusters by Signal Strength

The strongest bipartisan buy clusters the engine flagged, ranked by cluster strength, each shown with the realized 60-day price move that followed. Outcomes appear as-is — gains and losses alike. Ranking is by signal strength, not by return, and every cluster from this period feeds the aggregate stats above; nothing here is selected for performance.

TICKERPERIODMEMBERSPARTIESC-SCORE60D RETURN
MSFTJan 20258 membersD+R76-8.2%
MSFTJul 20256 membersD+I+R67+0.5%
MSFTJun 20254 membersD+R68+6.3%
AMZNMar 202510 membersD+R70+14.5%
MSFTDec 20247 membersD+R73-6.8%
MSFTFeb 20268 membersD+R75+8.9%
AMZNFeb 20258 membersD+R72-16.3%
METHODOLOGY

Research Notes

01Return windows measured from disclosure date (not transaction date) to reflect real-world signal availability.
02S&P 500 benchmark uses total return index (dividends reinvested) over identical windows.
03Win rate = share of trades that outperformed the S&P 500 over the 180-day holding window.
04Cluster-level returns are trade-weighted, not member-weighted, to avoid concentration bias.
05Data coverage: 2018–2026. Alpha measurement window: 2023–2026 (180-day lookback constraint).
06Survivorship bias controlled: all trades including loss-making positions are included.
07Dollar-range midpoints used for position sizing in weighted return calculations.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

This research is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Backtested performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk of loss. Congressional trade disclosures are public information available under the STOCK Act. Signal Congress is not affiliated with the U.S. Congress or any government agency. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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