RESEARCH

Congressional Stock Trading
— The Data

We analyzed 32,289 congressional stock trades filed under the STOCK Act from 2018–2026. Buying every congressional trade indiscriminately underperforms SPY by 0.32% at 60 days — Congress, in aggregate, is not a better stock picker than the index. But filtered for bipartisan clusters with committee relevance, the same dataset produces +7.87% alpha at 180 days. The 8+ point spread between the baseline and the signal is what Signal Congress finds.

Read our full methodology and statistical caveats →
CORE FINDING
+7.87%
Average 180-day outperformance vs. S&P 500
for cross-chamber bipartisan cluster trades (n=310, 2023–2026)
56.5%
Win Rate
+7.87% vs SPX
Avg Alpha
310 signals
Trade Count
2023–2026
Test Period
STRATEGY COMPARISON

Four Strategies, Backtested

Starting from all 32,289 congressional trades, we applied progressively tighter filters. The unfiltered baseline loses to the market. The right filter finds significant alpha. Each strategy below is independent — not a funnel.

BASELINE (NO FILTER)
All congressional purchases vs SPY
-0.32%
at 60 days · n = 6,224 purchases
STRATEGYTRADESWIN RATEAVG RETURNVS SPX
Baseline — all purchases10,280~50%-0.28%0%
Buys only (no sells)7,20354.1%+1.87%+1.00%
High Conviction (score ≥70)1,84158.6%+2.74%+1.87%
Cross-chamber bipartisan31056.5%+7.87%+7.87%
Bipartisan + Strength ≥ 80173~44%+3.95%+4.23%
Committee-relevant trades2,10657.9%+2.55%+1.68%
Short-lag trades (<10 days)93460.2%+2.88%+2.01%
Repeat buyers (≥2 trades in 30d)62359.7%+2.71%+1.84%
★ = highlighted strategy used as Signal Congress primary signal. Alpha measured vs. SPY total return over matching windows. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
HISTORICAL VALIDATION

Notable Bipartisan Clusters

Seven historically significant clusters where bipartisan buying preceded meaningful price moves. These are illustrative examples, not cherry-picked for promotional purposes — all clusters from the same period are included in the aggregate stats above.

TICKERPERIODMEMBERSPARTIESC-SCORE90D RETURNSPX 90DALPHA
NVDAQ3 20237 membersR+D91+36.2%+8.1%+28.1%
ORCLQ1 20245 membersR+D87+45.8%+12.3%+33.5%
MSFTQ2 20239 membersR+D88+27.3%+9.7%+17.6%
LMTQ4 20236 membersR+D84+18.9%+5.2%+13.7%
AMZNQ1 20238 membersR+D89+31.4%+7.8%+23.6%
TSMQ3 20234 membersR+D82+22.7%+8.1%+14.6%
METAQ2 20236 membersR+D85+39.1%+9.7%+29.4%
METHODOLOGY

Research Notes

01Return windows measured from disclosure date (not transaction date) to reflect real-world signal availability.
02S&P 500 benchmark uses total return index (dividends reinvested) over identical windows.
03Win rate = trades that outperformed SPX over 60-day holding window.
04Cluster-level returns are trade-weighted, not member-weighted, to avoid concentration bias.
05Data coverage: 2018–2026. Alpha measurement window: 2023–2026 (180-day lookback constraint).
06Survivorship bias controlled: all trades including loss-making positions are included.
07Dollar-range midpoints used for position sizing in weighted return calculations.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

This research is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Backtested performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk of loss. Congressional trade disclosures are public information available under the STOCK Act. Signal Congress is not affiliated with the U.S. Congress or any government agency. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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