This document describes the data pipelines, scoring models, and statistical methodologies underlying Signal Congress. It is written for users who want to understand exactly what the platform computes — and where the caveats are.
Sections: Anomaly Scoring · Committee Multipliers · Member Baseline Computation · Corroboration Windows · Alpha Calculation · Cluster Detection · Pipeline Freshness · Caveats
Each congressional trade receives an anomaly score from 0 to 100. The score is computed across five independent dimensions, each scored 0–100, then combined with a weighted average. A committee multiplier is applied to the final score where applicable.
For dimension-level descriptions — what each dimension measures and why it predicts information edge — see the How It Works page.
Congressional committee assignments give members structural information advantages in specific sectors. The committee multiplier scales the anomaly score upward when a trade occurs in a sector the member's committee directly oversees.
Signal Congress maintains a behavioral baseline for each active congressional member. Deviations from this baseline drive the anomaly score — a member buying outside their established pattern is more anomalous than a member doing what they always do.
Each corroboration source has a different signal-to-noise profile and is matched using a window and logic appropriate to its data type.
Alpha is computed as excess return versus SPY over the measurement horizon (60-day or 180-day window). Returns are winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentile to reduce outlier influence from extreme price moves. This is the figure reported throughout the platform.
Raw alpha (unwinsorized) is available in the backtester for users who want to see the full distribution.
A cluster is defined as 2 or more members trading the same ticker in the same direction within a 30-day rolling window. Clusters are detected across the full trade history and updated daily as new disclosures are filed.
The Signal Congress pipeline runs daily at 07:30 UTC. New trade disclosures appear in the feed within 24 hours of the pipeline run following their filing. Pipeline status and run timestamps are available in the Signal Log.
Signal Congress is research infrastructure, not investment advice. The signals we surface are observations drawn from public government records. What you do with those observations — whether you use them for journalism, academic research, policy analysis, or investment research — is your decision to make.
We publish this methodology document because the work of building accurate government-market intelligence requires intellectual honesty about what the data supports and what it doesn't. Backtested alpha is not forward-looking alpha. Anomaly scores identify statistically unusual behavior — they do not confirm the presence of material non-public information, which we cannot observe and do not claim to measure.
If you find an error in our methodology, a false positive pattern we haven't documented, or a statistical claim that doesn't hold up — contact us at research@signalcongress.com.